Patna, March 25, 2025 – A comprehensive study by PoliCrew, a political consulting firm led by Parvez Alam, has raised serious concerns for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) ahead of the 2025 Bihar Legislative Election. The analysis, which examines historical polling data, voting patterns, and current sociopolitical conditions, predicts that RJD could lose 26 of the 47 constituencies it won in 2020, with another 21 seats classified as “close calls” with a 50-50 chance of retention. Published by PoliCrew, this report highlights the challenges RJD faces amid a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a united National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the disruptive emergence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party.
Political Dynamics: A Shifting Landscape in Bihar
In the 2020 Bihar Legislative Election, RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats out of 243, largely due to a fragmented NDA. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), significantly damaged Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and allowing RJD to secure a higher seat tally. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign, focusing on unemployment and education, also created a wave among young voters, further boosting RJD’s performance. However, the NDA retained power with 125 seats (BJP: 74, JD(U): 43, others: 8). Fast forward to 2025, and the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Chirag Paswan, now leading the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)], and Upendra Kushwaha, who has now formed Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), have rejoined the NDA, forming a united front with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP. This consolidation eliminates the vote-splitting advantage RJD enjoyed in 2020, enabling JD(U) to potentially reclaim seats it lost. The BJP, riding high on recent victories in state elections like Haryana and Maharashtra in 2024, has emerged stronger than ever. Sources indicate that the BJP is likely to contest around 100 seats, while JD(U) may field candidates in 90 to 95 constituencies, with seat-sharing decisions based on surveys to ensure the strongest candidates are fielded. Adding to RJD’s challenges is the rise of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party, which is expected to contest all 243 seats. Moreover, Jan Suraaj’s grassroots engagement with youth and intellectual voters is drawing support from those disillusioned with JD(U). On March 6, 2025, Prashant Kishor announced he may contest from Raghopur, Tejashwi Yadav’s stronghold, potentially turning it into a high-stakes battle. RJD has attempted to counter these challenges by branding Nitish Kumar as “mentally unfit,” a narrative echoed by Prashant Kishor, who has called Nitish “physically tired and mentally retired.” However, Parvez Alam, head of PoliCrew, notes that this strategy may not yield significant gains for RJD. “Our analysis suggests that voters shifting away from JD(U) are more likely to support Jan Suraaj than RJD, as Prashant Kishor’s focus on governance and youth engagement resonates with a growing segment of the electorate,” Alam said. A recent survey reported on March 2, 2025, by Moneycontrol revealed that 41% of respondents preferred Tejashwi Yadav as Chief Minister, compared to 15% for Prashant Kishor and only 8% for Nitish Kumar, indicating Tejashwi’s personal popularity but also highlighting Jan Suraaj’s rising appeal.
PoliCrew’s Predictions: RJD’s Seats at Risk
PoliCrew’s research lists 47 constituencies RJD won in 2020, categorizing them based on the likelihood of loss in 2025. Of these, 26 seats are predicted to be outright losses for RJD, while 21 are deemed “close calls” with a 50-50 chance of retention.
Seats at High Risk of Loss (26 Constituencies): These constituencies are expected to be lost by RJD due to the united NDA’s consolidation, the BJP’s strengthened position, and Jan Suraaj’s vote-splitting effect:
- Alauli
- Atri
- Bajpatti
- Bhabua
- Ekma
- Gaighat
- Goh
- Islamapur
- Kalyanpur
- Kurhani
- Kurtha
- Laukaha
- Mahnar
- Minapur
- Mohania
- Mokama
- Morwa
- Nabinagar
- Nokha
- Obra
- Raghunathpur
- Sheikhpura
- Sheohar
- Sherghati
- Sugauli
- Surajgarha
Close-Call Seats (21 Constituencies with 50-50 Chance): These seats are highly competitive, with RJD’s chances of retention threatened by Jan Suraaj’s overall vote share dent—particularly impacting Muslim voters—and the NDA’s aggressive campaigning:
- Baniapur
- Barharia
- Belsand
- Bodh Gaya
- Cheria Bariarpur
- Danapur
- Dhauraiya
- Garkha
- Hasanpur
- Jagdishpur
- Madhubani
- Marhaura
- Narkatia
- Parsa
- Ramgarh
- Sahebpur Kamal
- Sasaram
- Simri Bakhtiarpur
- Singheshwar
- Siwan
- Sonepur
Analysis of Key Seats
Garkha, Surajgarha, and Bhabua: RJD won Garkha, Surajgarha (listed as Supingarha in the data), and Bhabua (listed as Bhagua) in 2020 with a minimal margin of 5%. These seats are particularly vulnerable in 2025, as Jan Suraaj’s predicted dent in RJD’s overall vote share could erase this margin, especially with a larger proportion of the shift coming from Muslim voters. Garkha is listed as a close-call seat, indicating a 50-50 chance, while Surajgarha and Bhabua are predicted to be outright losses, reflecting the tight margins and the impact of current political dynamics.
Laukaha, Sonepur, Mahnar, Sheikhpura, and Atri: RJD won Laukaha, Sonepur, Mahnar, Sheikhpura, and Atri in 2020 with an approximate margin of 4%. These seats are highly vulnerable, as Jan Suraaj’s dent in RJD’s overall vote share exceeds the margin of victory, making a shift in voter preference likely. Sonepur is listed as close-call seat, indicating a 50-50 chance, but the narrow margin suggests it could easily swing to the NDA or be impacted by Jan Suraaj’s vote-splitting effect. Mahnar, Sheikhpura, and Atri are predicted to be outright losses, reflecting the tight margins and the challenging political environment for RJD.
Madhubani, Singheshwar, Sugauli, Barharia, Cheria Bariarpur, Alauli, Islamapur, and Bodh Gaya: RJD won these seats in 2020 with an extremely narrow margin of 2-3%, making them some of the most vulnerable constituencies in 2025.
Sasaram and Siwan: Both marked as close calls, these constituencies have significant Muslim populations. Jan Suraaj’s impact on RJD’s vote share, particularly among Muslim voters, could allow the NDA to secure a plurality, especially with the BJP’s focus on development and Hindutva.
Conclusion: A Steep Decline for RJD?
PoliCrew’s analysis suggests a steep decline for RJD, potentially reducing its tally from 75 seats in 2020 to around 28-54 seats in 2025. The united NDA, led by a resurgent BJP, is poised to capitalize on its recent successes and Nitish Kumar’s governance record, despite criticisms. Jan Suraaj’s emergence as a disruptor, particularly its impact on RJD’s overall vote share—with a significant portion coming from Muslim voters—and its appeal to youth, further complicates RJD’s prospects. For RJD to mitigate losses, it must focus on retaining the 21 close-call seats through targeted campaigning, counter Jan Suraaj’s appeal to Muslim and youth voters, and revive Tejashwi Yadav’s connection with the youth. A united Mahagathbandhan with Congress and Left parties will also be crucial to consolidate anti-NDA votes. However, as the political colors of Bihar intensify ahead of the November 2025 polls, RJD faces an uphill battle to maintain its relevance in the state’s shifting landscape.