{"id":1430,"date":"2025-03-25T06:30:37","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T06:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/policrewindia.com\/analysis\/?p=1430"},"modified":"2025-05-16T14:49:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T14:49:27","slug":"rjd-faces-uphill-battle-in-bihar-2025-elections-policrew-research-predicts-26-seat-losses-21-in-close-contests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/policrewindia.com\/analysis\/rjd-faces-uphill-battle-in-bihar-2025-elections-policrew-research-predicts-26-seat-losses-21-in-close-contests\/","title":{"rendered":"RJD Faces Uphill Battle in Bihar 2025 Elections: PoliCrew Research Predicts 26 Seat Losses, 21 in Close Contests"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Patna, March 25, 2025 <\/strong>\u2013 A comprehensive study by PoliCrew, a political consulting firm led by Parvez Alam, has raised serious concerns for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) ahead of the 2025 Bihar Legislative Election. The analysis, which examines historical polling data, voting patterns, and current sociopolitical conditions, predicts that RJD could lose 26 of the 47 constituencies it won in 2020, with another 21 seats classified as &#8220;close calls&#8221; with a 50-50 chance of retention. Published by PoliCrew, this report highlights the challenges RJD faces amid a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a united National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the disruptive emergence of Prashant Kishor\u2019s Jan Suraaj party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Political Dynamics: A Shifting Landscape in Bihar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the 2020 Bihar Legislative Election, RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats out of 243, largely due to a fragmented NDA. Chirag Paswan\u2019s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Upendra Kushwaha\u2019s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), significantly damaged Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and allowing RJD to secure a higher seat tally. Tejashwi Yadav\u2019s campaign, focusing on unemployment and education, also created a wave among young voters, further boosting RJD\u2019s performance. However, the NDA retained power with 125 seats (BJP: 74, JD(U): 43, others: 8). Fast forward to 2025, and the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Chirag Paswan, now leading the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)], and Upendra Kushwaha, who has now formed Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), have rejoined the NDA, forming a united front with Nitish Kumar\u2019s JD(U) and the BJP. This consolidation eliminates the vote-splitting advantage RJD enjoyed in 2020, enabling JD(U) to potentially reclaim seats it lost. The BJP, riding high on recent victories in state elections like Haryana and Maharashtra in 2024, has emerged stronger than ever. Sources indicate that the BJP is likely to contest around 100 seats, while JD(U) may field candidates in 90 to 95 constituencies, with seat-sharing decisions based on surveys to ensure the strongest candidates are fielded. Adding to RJD\u2019s challenges is the rise of Prashant Kishor\u2019s Jan Suraaj party, which is expected to contest all 243 seats. Moreover, Jan Suraaj\u2019s grassroots engagement with youth and intellectual voters is drawing support from those disillusioned with JD(U). On March 6, 2025, Prashant Kishor announced he may contest from Raghopur, Tejashwi Yadav\u2019s stronghold, potentially turning it into a high-stakes battle. RJD has attempted to counter these challenges by branding Nitish Kumar as \u201cmentally unfit,\u201d a narrative echoed by Prashant Kishor, who has called Nitish \u201cphysically tired and mentally retired.\u201d However, Parvez Alam, head of PoliCrew, notes that this strategy may not yield significant gains for RJD. \u201cOur analysis suggests that voters shifting away from JD(U) are more likely to support Jan Suraaj than RJD, as Prashant Kishor\u2019s focus on governance and youth engagement resonates with a growing segment of the electorate,\u201d Alam said. A recent survey reported on March 2, 2025, by Moneycontrol revealed that 41% of respondents preferred Tejashwi Yadav as Chief Minister, compared to 15% for Prashant Kishor and only 8% for Nitish Kumar, indicating Tejashwi\u2019s personal popularity but also highlighting Jan Suraaj\u2019s rising appeal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PoliCrew\u2019s Predictions: RJD\u2019s Seats at Risk<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PoliCrew\u2019s research lists 47 constituencies RJD won in 2020, categorizing them based on the likelihood of loss in 2025. Of these, 26 seats are predicted to be outright losses for RJD, while 21 are deemed \u201cclose calls\u201d with a 50-50 chance of retention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Seats at High Risk of Loss (26 Constituencies): <\/strong>These constituencies are expected to be lost by RJD due to the united NDA\u2019s consolidation, the BJP\u2019s strengthened position, and Jan Suraaj\u2019s vote-splitting effect:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Alauli<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Atri <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bajpatti<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bhabua<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ekma <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gaighat<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Goh <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Islamapur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kalyanpur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kurhani <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kurtha <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Laukaha<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mahnar <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Minapur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mohania <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mokama <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Morwa <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nabinagar <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nokha <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Obra <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Raghunathpur<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sheikhpura <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sheohar <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sherghati <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sugauli <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Surajgarha<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Close-Call Seats (21 Constituencies with 50-50 Chance): <\/strong>These seats are highly competitive, with RJD\u2019s chances of retention threatened by Jan Suraaj\u2019s overall vote share dent\u2014particularly impacting Muslim voters\u2014and the NDA\u2019s aggressive campaigning:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Baniapur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Barharia <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Belsand<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bodh Gaya <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cheria Bariarpur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Danapur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dhauraiya<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Garkha <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hasanpur<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jagdishpur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Madhubani <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Marhaura<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Narkatia <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Parsa <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ramgarh <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sahebpur Kamal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sasaram <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Simri Bakhtiarpur <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Singheshwar <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Siwan <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sonepur <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Analysis of Key Seats <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Garkha, Surajgarha, and Bhabua:<\/strong> RJD won Garkha, Surajgarha (listed as Supingarha in the data), and Bhabua (listed as Bhagua) in 2020 with a minimal margin of 5%. These seats are particularly vulnerable in 2025, as Jan Suraaj\u2019s predicted dent in RJD\u2019s overall vote share could erase this margin, especially with a larger proportion of the shift coming from Muslim voters. Garkha is listed as a close-call seat, indicating a 50-50 chance, while Surajgarha and Bhabua are predicted to be outright losses, reflecting the tight margins and the impact of current political dynamics. <strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Laukaha, Sonepur, Mahnar, Sheikhpura, and Atri:<\/strong> RJD won Laukaha, Sonepur, Mahnar, Sheikhpura, and Atri in 2020 with an approximate margin of 4%. These seats are highly vulnerable, as Jan Suraaj\u2019s dent in RJD\u2019s overall vote share exceeds the margin of victory, making a shift in voter preference likely. Sonepur is listed as close-call seat, indicating a 50-50 chance, but the narrow margin suggests it could easily swing to the NDA or be impacted by Jan Suraaj\u2019s vote-splitting effect. Mahnar, Sheikhpura, and Atri are predicted to be outright losses, reflecting the tight margins and the challenging political environment for RJD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Madhubani, Singheshwar, Sugauli, Barharia, Cheria Bariarpur, Alauli, Islamapur, and Bodh Gaya:<\/strong> RJD won these seats in 2020 with an extremely narrow margin of 2-3%, making them some of the most vulnerable constituencies in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sasaram and Siwan:<\/strong> Both marked as close calls, these constituencies have significant Muslim populations. Jan Suraaj\u2019s impact on RJD\u2019s vote share, particularly among Muslim voters, could allow the NDA to secure a plurality, especially with the BJP\u2019s focus on development and Hindutva. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Conclusion: A Steep Decline for RJD?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PoliCrew\u2019s analysis suggests a steep decline for RJD, potentially reducing its tally from 75 seats in 2020 to around 28-54 seats in 2025. The united NDA, led by a resurgent BJP, is poised to capitalize on its recent successes and Nitish Kumar\u2019s governance record, despite criticisms. Jan Suraaj\u2019s emergence as a disruptor, particularly its impact on RJD\u2019s overall vote share\u2014with a significant portion coming from Muslim voters\u2014and its appeal to youth, further complicates RJD\u2019s prospects. For RJD to mitigate losses, it must focus on retaining the 21 close-call seats through targeted campaigning, counter Jan Suraaj\u2019s appeal to Muslim and youth voters, and revive Tejashwi Yadav\u2019s connection with the youth. A united Mahagathbandhan with Congress and Left parties will also be crucial to consolidate anti-NDA votes. However, as the political colors of Bihar intensify ahead of the November 2025 polls, RJD faces an uphill battle to maintain its relevance in the state\u2019s shifting landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Patna, March 25, 2025 \u2013 A comprehensive study by PoliCrew, a political consulting firm led by Parvez Alam, has raised serious concerns for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) ahead of the 2025 Bihar Legislative Election. The analysis, which examines historical polling data, voting patterns, and current sociopolitical conditions, predicts that RJD could lose 26 of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1431,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[96,132,94,117,75,136,128],"class_list":["post-1430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-bihar-politics","tag-lalu-yadav","tag-patna-news","tag-political-strategist","tag-prashant-kishor","tag-rashtriya-janata-dal","tag-rjd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>RJD Faces Uphill Battle in Bihar 2025 Elections: PoliCrew Research Predicts 26 Seat Losses, 21 in Close Contests - PolicrewIndia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PoliCrew predicts that RJD could lose 26 of 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